You snooze you lose

April 1, 2020

The required skill level to prosper trading is treading light footed. This is only possible with confidence. Confidence comes from a knowing. Knowing settles in after a long time of experience. However any professional can get shaken up, hence the saying “when in doubt stay out”. Moves to the downside are vastly shorter in time than long legs. It takes less time to destroy something than building it. Fear is more forceful than greed on the short term. Consequently, when markets change and are going down it requires a speedy learning process. As a professional trader one needs to adopt fast. This means little sleep in market crash times and many hours behind the screen for back testing and analyzing markets. In other words, when markets truly change one better hits the ground running. Otherwise You snooze you lose.

 

As a market speculator one can not afford to take a break or sit out a market crash without a steep learning curve. The main goal is a consistent equity curve. You can’t just go into cash if for example this new situation might render cash worthless due to a possibility of hyperinflation. This sport requires one to be consistently on top of things. Let us share a finding that might be worth your time.

 

Time is of the essence
 
S&P 500 Monthly Chart, Prices Tumble Faster:
 

 

S&P 500 monthly chart as of April 1st, 2020

 

The monthly chart of the S&P 500 illustrates the relationship of time used for up legs versus down legs. We compared identical price growth versus price decline. Not a true comparison since a 50% decline already needs a 100% profit just to break even. So declines are much more meaningful to the investor. Nevertheless, we assumed identical moves and reviewed the last three crashes.

 

Clearly just like a sandcastle (and everything else), it takes much more time to build than to destroy. No matter if you short the market, or need to protect long holdings only, since the short legs are more meaningful they deserve exceptional attention. They require a quick understanding of things while they are happening or You snooze you lose.

 

Markets versus Bitcoin
 
Daily Chart, Relationship Between NASDAQ And Bitcoin:

 

 

NASDAQ 100 futures versus BTC daily chart as of April 1st, 2020

 

The daily chart above compares the price behavior of Bitcoin (blue line) and the NASDAQ 100 (green line).

 

If you take a look at scenario one, you will find that Bitcoin made its turning point towards lower prices on the 14th of February. The NASDAQ had its high five days later before it turned south.

 

The second scenario shows Bitcoin starting to bottom build on the 26th of February while the NASDAQ still further declined and took two more days before advancing.

 

Scenario number three has Bitcoin print its low of a declining leg on March 12th while it took the NASDAQ a whole eight more days to do the same.

 

It is a small sample size that requires further forward testing, but it is a strong case for Bitcoin leading important turning points in the overall markets. Information like this can be highly valuable for various scenarios of exploitation and risk management, should this theory proof right. More importantly with the confidence of analysis like this being done and hip-pocketed to ones overall experience, one steps into the market with the required confidence. Prepare, to not be surprised should such events repeat themselves and confidently act upon these opportunities with proper execution!

 

 Daily Chart, BTCUSDT, You Snooze You Lose, Inter Market Relationship Guidance:

 

BTCUSDT daily chart as of April 1st, 2020

 

For example: The daily chart of Bitcoin above shows a congestion zone with a slightly higher probability towards the downside as a resolve. Assuming the previous concepts to be accurate, lightening up on ones overall market exposure in the S&P or NASDAQ components could be a way to reduce risk. With our Quad exit strategy you can lighten up on positions that you might find uncomfortable holding through a possible upcoming down leg. Another way to use this slightly leading signal is to use it as an indicator. We post all our Bitcoin market entries and exits live in our telegram channel with quite successful performance statistics. Even if you are not operating in the crypto space yet, you could confirm decision making processes of your own in overall markets, using Bitcoin as a leading indicator. Truly, the possibility of application is vast and we just pointed out here a couple options. Inter market relationships can be highly useful in trading.

 

You snooze you lose
 

It can be challenging to keep ones head over water in a fast paced environment that confronts with new market behavior, but it is mandatory. One can not simply wing it in the markets. One needs true confidence to execute and as such a knowing, not a guessing or assuming. You certainly do not want to start out getting your feet wet as a newbie trader in a highly volatile steep declining market environment. Screen time spent at these times for analysis outside market hours (outside execution times in the case of Bitcoin being a 24/7 market) pays off. The sooner one adopts to market behavior never seen prior, the higher the likelihood to first of all not losing money and secondly making some more.

 

Join our free Telegram Group :https://t.me/joinchat/HGe22hDDEEl0LvFGAgEZ9g

 

 

All published information represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Korbinian Koller & his partners, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Koller’s opinions are his own and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Koller is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Koller recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

 

 

 

Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Korbinian Koller is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Koller’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The passing on and reproduction of this report, analysis or information within the membership area is only legal with a written permission of the author.

 

 

Important Trading Risks and Earnings Disclaimers - Terms of Use

 

RISK DISCLAIMER: All forms of trading carry a high level of risk so you should only speculate with money you can afford to lose. You can lose more than your initial deposit and stake. Please ensure your chosen method matches your investment objectives, familiarize yourself with the risks involved and if necessary seek independent advice.

 

 

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Trading financial instruments of any kind including options, futures and securities have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the options, futures and stock markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose.

 

NFA and CTFC Required Disclaimers: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market is a challenging opportunity where above average returns are available for educated and experienced investors who are willing to take above average risk. However, before deciding to participate in Foreign Exchange (FX) trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.

 

EARNINGS DISCLAIMER: EVERY EFFORT HAS BEEN MADE TO ACCURATELY REPRESENT THIS PRODUCT AND ITS POTENTIAL. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT YOU WILL EARN ANY MONEY USING THE TECHNIQUES, IDEAS OR PRODUCTS PRESENTED. EXAMPLES PRESENTED ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS A PROMISE OR GUARANTEE OF EARNINGS.

 

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAN ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

 

 

All information presented or any product purchased from this website is for educational and research purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. Any statement about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. This presentation is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell options, futures stocks or securities. No representation is being made that any information you receive will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please use common sense. Get the advice of a competent financial advisor before investing your money in any financial instrument.

 

Terms of Use: Your use of this educational website indicates your acceptance of these disclaimers. In addition, you agree to hold harmless the publisher and instructors personally and collectively for any losses of capital, if any, that may result from the use of the information. In other words, you must make your own decisions, be responsible for your own decisions and trade at your own risk.

 

Tags:

Please reload

Recent Posts

August 12, 2020

August 7, 2020

August 5, 2020

July 23, 2020

Please reload

Stay Up-To-Date with New Posts

Search By Tags

Please reload

join my free

telegram Group

Mentorship

packages

download my

free book