THE FLOW TRADER

Most market risk doesn’t live where people think it lives. It doesn’t live in the headline candle, the breaking-news push notification, or the dramatic narrative that gives the day a convenient explanation. Those are stories . Risk lives in the invisible gap between what we feel  is happening and what is probable . And that gap is where traders, investors, and entire societies tend to do their most expensive thinking. Familiar patterns feel true, but probability is what’s tru

War changes the game. First and foremost, this is not business as usual. We are dealing with a war scenario that can escalate fast and become extremely violent in nature, and as such it is fully capable of producing a six-sigma trading event. That reality brings us back to our typical, principle-based, top-down approach. The priority is not to chase a potentially emotional, news-driven move on the Sunday open. The priority is to prepare and rehearse for the tail-risk scenario

When the CME was closed yesterday a student asked: My order placement is down-I can't get out of my position, what do I do? typically it is best not to try to place orders at all-since its more likely that things turn worse if you get really worried i would only place a market order to sell (if you are large player it pays to befriend somebody working on the floor at the exchange to place an hedge trade since the floor typically is open longer at a six sigma event) yet ano

Like so often in trading to properly fiance a trade is complex, counter intuitive and a skill that needs to be acquired. Typically trader are unhappy about financing to early or too late and furthermore these emotions creep up on individual trade examples. The culprit in 99% of the cases is psychological in nature. Greed when its too early financed but the trade runs further or "I wish i would have financed" when financing was missed trying to hold on longer but the trade had

https://www.theflowtrader.com/single-post/and-the-winner-is-1 (nice profits for those who joined the shorts with this 50% decline in price on bitcoin) who cares, charts from yesterday are already old news BUT we followed up: https://x.com/the_flow_trader/status/2021991594354974741/photo/1 and the whole point is that we for a very long time now had a sideways trading phase after a bull phase which allows for a probability to possibly reverse trend and as such we are wa

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Trading and AI is not a simple topic. It looks simple on the surface because the marketing is simple. “Smarter models.” “Better predictions.” “More edge.” But if you want to protect yourself, you have to know what you’re protecting yourself from. Most people are not afraid of AI itself. They are afraid of what change does to their sense of control. Over the years, I’ve educated myself on this subject enough to have an opinion. Not because my opinion matters, but because in ma

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A fresh start, tabula rasa, is what most consistently loosing traders long for. Erasing bad memories, losing streaks, wiped out accounts and coming in fresh to disassociate with the pain constant failure causes. Yet the beginning of a New year does allow for certain new starts like the first quarter of a year and a fresh bar on the annual charts, a new tax cycle and much more. The successful trader has overhauled the business plan and set goals and set new parameters for mo