THE FLOW TRADER

When people ask me how I am doing, or what I am doing right now, my answer is simple. I am in a transition phase. The reason I currently provide only a slim Telegram channel, with one daily call for one instrument, and a few blog entries on the website, is because markets have changed. That is not a step back. It is discipline. The great thing about trading is that it is always a path and never an arrival. As such, one is never bored. The market keeps asking new questions. Th

Most investors think about risk in market terms. Stocks go down. Real estate corrects. Bonds lose value. Liquidity dries up.Fear rises. That is normal market risk. A 2008-type event was brutal, but it still happened inside the existing system. Banks opened. Broker accounts functioned. Laws stayed mostly recognizable. The rules were bent, but the game board remained in place. Systemic risk is different. Systemic risk is when the rules themselves become part of the risk. That i

Market history does not give us a clock. It gives us a warning system. When we look at major crash years like 1637, 1797, 1819, 1837, 1857, 1884, 1901, 1907, 1929, 1937, 1974, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2000 and 2008, the first temptation is to search for a perfect cycle. That is usually the wrong approach. Markets are not mechanical clocks.They are living systems. They move through credit, liquidity, leverage, valuation, concentration, belief and fear. The dates do not repeat perfect

Trading is not like most professions. One major difference is the assignment of tasks across different states and different times of the day. It is a clear principle violation to do system development and execution at the same time. You cannot be engaged in finding edges through backtesting and forward testing, analyzing data, and evaluating probabilities while also observing live markets and managing execution. These are different modes of the mind. System development is ana

How to identify meaningful principles At the center of all this is a very simple but far-reaching idea: most of us confuse our concepts with reality. We mistake the word for the thing, the map for the territory, the label for the living process. And once we do that, we begin to live inside a mental construction while calling it reality. This matters greatly in trading. The market is not really a fixed “thing” in the way most people think of it. It is a process. It is interact

today, 3/31/26 (end of the 1st quarter) is a good example on how the daily call can protect you from risk looking at a daily chart with a strong push up one could easily assume that one missed out on a seemingly directional day: A classical error made on "after the fact'. yesterday we rightfully assumed a possible bounce due to a four legged down-move of the S&P500: in conjunction to support and resistance and other principles: with our sideways call for that day we wer

in the last millennia: read a ton of books attend seminars learn computer skills be able to hold a long position in a 30 year bull market over the last 25 years: all the above @ mastery level have various systems for various market environments create your own edges (extract new principles) anticipate market cycles now: all the above and the ability to clearly accept what doesn't work anymore CANI (constant and never ending improvement) the ability to learn a new "language":

many successful traders are facing the fact that basic foundations of their trading systems are broken and their technical edges have seized to exist. AI applications and supercomputers have now not just exploited arbitrate trading but typical chart pattern trading has no significant edge anymore. This includes Indicator trading as well where the probabilities are simply not significant enough any longer to build executable systems. This forces the individual trader to expa

our posts this week were pointing towards a possible directional shift and today's price action has opened the door for the bears and confirmed our forecast

Many thanks to some of my students for the diligent effort they put into consistently following and scrutinizing my work, especially the longer time frame posts. I only wish I had the time to follow up on my own forecasts with the same level of rigor. But to perform on the level I do each day, I have to cut corners somewhere. While I backtest my work with considerable precision, little time remains to measure in detail how the real-time forecasts I have shared over the past t