Learning to master the markets is like drinking from a fire hose. This does not change, no matter at what stage of the game you are. The vastness of possibilities and the challenges of psychology are endless. Therefore the only way of maneuvering through a landscape this broad is condensing systematically and focusing on principles. One question we get asked a lot is:”How can one...
Once a speculator has an established edge he/she has two ways of increasing profitability. Frequency = exposing the edge more often. Size = trade larger. It depends on ones psychology, ones system and many more factors to select one of those two routes. If one finds oneself in the early stages of market exposure, reducing ones bet size is preferable. Risk is always the most impor...
We as humans are fooled by a brain that functions on comparison. The true principle is, that every moment is unique and we expand with every time increment into an absolutely new future (big bang theory). We would be overwhelmed by the vastness of data of this constant expansion. We use the comparison model as a filter. In addition we are limited to only perceive outside of us wh...
We spoke in our last weeks release of our chartbook on how to take a contrarian position. How to bet against consensus. Sentiment is one aspect supporting a contrarian trader. The obvious in achieving a “buy low, sell high” approach… Selling when media is in exuberance of extremely good news. Consequently buying when there is doomsday mood in public opinion. There is more though...
With a vast following of market speculators, we receive a consistent inflow of questions and comments about the market. Traders ask in our our telegram channel, where we post our trades live, and via e mail as well as in our public appearances, about all kinds of market related issues. One phenomenon seems striking. The fact that most find taking the “easy” trades hardest and sim...
Mother Theresa was once asked, if she’d be joining a demonstration against war. She refused and stated, that she gladly would follow a rally that would be for peace. This based on the underlying principle, that being against something weakens us while being for something strengthens us. Typically, market play guiding principles do not align with intuitive behavior like that. Pric...
We are supporting a group of over two thousand traders, investors, speculators and alike in our telegram channel. This along side posting our own entries and exits of trades in real time. We can feel the various types of emotions flaring up in the whole community throughout the different market price actions. Fear, greed and uncertainty rotate depending on market behavior. Often...
You will find the word principles being used often in our publications. This is based on the phenomenon of market speculation to be counter intuitive. We can solve most problems by relying on our experience and gut. It is by far the worst to do so in investing. Usually we orient ourselves measuring against peers. So who knows if the neighbor tells the truth about his riches and h...
That is the question. Most predicting publications in the money market niche sound something like this.”The trend most likely continues, or prices might go sideways, possibly decline”. Prices can’t do much else than go up, sideways or down. Predictions conveniently put like this are always followed up with another publication stating:”we were right, …”. How much use is that to th...
Beta is a measure of a trading instrument in relation to its market. A beta below 1.0 describes the instrument moving percentage wise less than the market. A beta above 1.0 means the underlying instrument outperforming the market percentage wise. Influencing factors are the underlying volatility of an instrument, rotation and relative strength/relative weakness among others. We t...
