how we see this market revealing itself

August 14, 2018

the most obvious is investors reaching a point of pain here where altcoins get changed back to BTC and as such stabilize the actual market but themselves loose temporary value in price levels-Which for the astute participant is true value in participating in suppressed price levels

lets make a brief review of where we are coming from and what is advisable as a next action item

the question is always "when and how much" (and is actually less:" at what price " what most people look at)

as pointed out yesterday it is essential to make a plan-you don't go to the car dealership or your realtor and simply buy what the salesman is suggesting-you do your research prior since you don't want these more meaningful purchases turn out to be lemons

the markets are counter intuitive in nature as such your "gut" isn't the best resource to just wing it when the time has come-you simply have to put some time into this if you truly want this dollar to turn into a few more

the market can do three things it can go up (=relevant emotion=greed),go sideways(=relevant emotion=uncertainty) or go down in price(=relevant emotion =fear) and one shouldn't underestimate of how these emotions effect ones decision making process-Even after nearly 3 decades of trading I have mutual emotions evoked in price behavior each time again but I have learned to interpret them in a different way ( for example fear=opportunity)

part of feeling these emotions is also an energy alignment-meaning you are exposed to the market who carry a certain emotion of mass behavior and since like attracts like you get somewhat drawn into the general market energy consensus-so fighting these emotions isn't the best solution but awareness of these states is-and than having appropriate behavior patterns = a plan in place to react appropriately in alignment to trading/investing principles that support your goals

so for example sideways triangle formations which are nothing else than an equal balance for bears and bulls fighting for an outcome of direction put one at some point asleep which is most of exactly the Apex where the battle is one by one side and having a plan in place of how to not be lulled into this price action but rather know ahead of time on how and when to participate is imperative

ow as indicated lets see what the recent history held while this channel was established at the end of January:

until February we had a strong decline and traded lightly against direction (to honor traders and investors needs alike by not trading the short side to pour oil into the flames for those channel participants who are not capable of this feature)-market participation was frequent but swift for income producing only (to mitigate losses in an overall portfolio exposure that had been already massively reduced in size)and small exposure of overall capital allocation:
 

we bounced and retraced again to build a double bottom:

at this point i announced that i will for the first time since the channel had started on January 25th allocate a 100% of risk capital to the market:

we took advantage of the leg up and shortly after nearly reaching 10k in the BTC market got out with 85% of the capital at 9500:

at the triple bottom we did the same thing all over again where a 100% risk capital allocation was warranted for and announced in this channel:


and again strongly lightened up again in size at the expected profit target (in this case visually represented through the 200 Moving Average):


and here we are again:

quadruple bottom

I have been called a Jedi and a druid and a master and whatever else in this channel but as you can see my actions are not that miraculous BUT I have done one thing-I came prepared into each of these more important points and simply acted upon my plan with conviction-now it doesn't matter that much if you are actually right or not-yes this quadruple bottom can be interpreted in various ways as a continuation pattern for price going actually down or as a reversal pattern for a price bounce but as you know with even just a risk reward ratio of 1:2 where you would risk one dollar to make two you can be out of a sample size of 20 thirteen times wrong (loosing 13x 1 dollar = a total loss of $ 13)and only 7 times right in your educated guesses (= 7 times a profit of $ 2 = total winnings of $ 14) and still come out ahead but you cant get these sort of figures if you are not acting in the appropriate spots that provide such risk reward ratios with the appropriate size

my point being that emotional reactionary behavior is not truly the way to go but rather formulating this educated guess(and it is nothing else since no one knows the future) and acting in your own best interest at the time your formulated action plan matches in what the market is actually doing

I apologize if i have put the astute trade/investor in this channel asleep with basic principle elaboration but i have gotten in the past so many Dm's at these important turning points and found that most succumbed to their emotional involvement in the market instead of participating in an appropriate manner to extract consistent profits-

The larger picture has not changed in our opinion about seasonality:

https://www.midastouch-consulting.com/crypto-chartbook-07112018

the yesterday established "probe" to "feel" the market is a tool to participate in a extremely conservative way (while usually the rule of not more than 2% per individual non related position of total risk capital is prudent) with less than a percent on the total portfolio reload (=meaningless in size exposure and as such wide stops) to evoke this time an awareness in the channel of upcoming events needing to be planned in advance since otherwise actions being suppressed in fear at the time of true opportunity-So in a way I was hoping to get those channel participants who are in a state of doubt in a rather conducive psychological spot of alertness to possibly make an action plan

this is the "probe" portfolio sample established yesterday:

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