Bitcoin´s baseline data has changed.

A baseline is a minimum or starting point used for comparisons. Markets are a reflection of human behavior. And the actual price is a future projection of the collective of participants in the market. For probability measurements of chart evaluation, no matter if one refers to algorithms, chart pattern evaluation, or any type of chart interpretation, baseline data is used. Meaning data comparisons by averages and past performance analysis, that builds the reference points. But the last fifteen months do not line up as another data set to be integrated into baseline data as usual. Bitcoin´s baseline data has changed.

We are not saying that principle behavior like fight/flight mechanisms needs questioning. Still, our market observations have shown that typical inter-market relationships are more than just out of whack. New datasets can’t be absorbed with the result of a barely noticeable change of some averages. Weighing the multitude of last year’s changes to world economies proportionally stronger might help to operate from baseline data changes that allow seeing the market more clearly. Consequently, creating an edge even to foresee six sigma events and a wealth preservation approach that outperforms all those who are more prone to work from averages with the underlying wish of a status quo.

BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Last weeks chart:

Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 5th, 2021.

We posted the above chart in our last weeks chartbook publication.

“The wealth preservers” (coining a new asset class), being mainly Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver, have already changed in their trading behavior. Measuring their performance and typical trading movements by insisting on past comparisons only would skew one’s systems to underperform. With fundamental strength changes of this magnitude, one needs to be on one’s toes. One needs to integrate newly found principle extractions on how this asset class has its own characteristics. It will turn into a bull market with some typical and atypical expansions for the years to come.

BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Changes since last week:

Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 13th, 2021.

Comparing this chart to last weeks chart, you can tell we were busy. Aggressively we have taken each opportunity of a low-risk play. We did so due to findings that once Bitcoin sets in motion above a last all-time high, it trades with little low-risk opportunities to enter the leg. To be positioned before a breakout is vital. With our Quad exit strategy, we eliminated risk entirely by taking half of the positions’ size off the table for substantial profits at the triple top. We posted all trades in real time in our free Telegram channel.

More rigid approaches like exclusive algorithmic trading have already seen some damage to those holding on too tightly, insisting on past evaluations to transfer into the future. This has led to hedge funds accumulating dramatic losses in a very short time on high leverage. Consistent backtesting and learning from last year’s trading behavior changes across all markets is the primary homework for professional market participants now and in the future to come.

BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Advanced projections:

Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of April 13th, 2021.

We have investigated small time frames in detail and have found the rate of change reflected in market behavior. Markets holographic in nature will reflect this new speed or change overall in longer time frames as well. Changing a few indicator settings or an MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) setting will not solve the abnormality. We are entering into a new era and markets reflecting this change. An open mind and scrutinizing ongoing market analysis is necessary to keep up to speed.

Consequently, we changed entry placement as shown in the second chart of today’s publication. This alongside money management. We also find that a larger time frame target assessment needs a haul over. Typical target evaluations through fixtures like Fibonacci extensions and alike will have a much shorter shelf life. It is essential now to adjust target assessments more frequently based on actual trading behavior within each extension and retracement leg.

Bitcoin´s baseline data has changed

More often than not, it has been contrarians that have outperformed the markets. And within that group, it has been those who supported their theories by thinking outside the box that walked away with true wealth. Is it likely that recent changes in the economy will return to a norm of the past? If not, then baseline data needs to be created a bit more creatively than just adding a few months of abnormality to history. Larger cycles need to be addressed with a variant degree. In this case, accelerating the rate of change as such specific data should not be relied on. Instead it needs to be creatively reflected and expanded into a possible new future.

When uncertain, we tend to compare to find comfort in status quo outcome possibilities. Real-time data speaks a different truth. We encourage filtering baseline data for principled-based historical data only! Add a punch (not a pinch) of a realistic view of the future.

Join our free Telegram Group :https://t.me/joinchat/HGe22hDDEEl0LvFGAgEZ9g

All published information represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Korbinian Koller & his partners, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Koller’s opinions are his own and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Koller is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Koller recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Korbinian Koller is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Koller’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The passing on and reproduction of this report, analysis or information within the membership area is only legal with a written permission of the author.

Important Trading Risks and Earnings Disclaimers - Terms of Use

RISK DISCLAIMER: All forms of trading carry a high level of risk so you should only speculate with money you can afford to lose. You can lose more than your initial deposit and stake. Please ensure your chosen method matches your investment objectives, familiarize yourself with the risks involved and if necessary seek independent advice.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Trading financial instruments of any kind including options, futures and securities have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the options, futures and stock markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose.

NFA and CTFC Required Disclaimers: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market is a challenging opportunity where above average returns are available for educated and experienced investors who are willing to take above average risk. However, before deciding to participate in Foreign Exchange (FX) trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.

EARNINGS DISCLAIMER: EVERY EFFORT HAS BEEN MADE TO ACCURATELY REPRESENT THIS PRODUCT AND ITS POTENTIAL. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT YOU WILL EARN ANY MONEY USING THE TECHNIQUES, IDEAS OR PRODUCTS PRESENTED. EXAMPLES PRESENTED ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS A PROMISE OR GUARANTEE OF EARNINGS.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAN ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All information presented or any product purchased from this website is for educational and research purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. Any statement about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. This presentation is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell options, futures stocks or securities. No representation is being made that any information you receive will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please use common sense. Get the advice of a competent financial advisor before investing your money in any financial instrument.

Terms of Use: Your use of this educational website indicates your acceptance of these disclaimers. In addition, you agree to hold harmless the publisher and instructors personally and collectively for any losses of capital, if any, that may result from the use of the information. In other words, you must make your own decisions, be responsible for your own decisions and trade at your own risk.