The different approach

this quarterly chart shows trend angles

the last two steep up long trends were established under a government labeled to be not conducive for the market

and now we have a government that is labeled to be good for the markets

also in a time of prices nearly doubling in the last two years we have consistent negative overall sentiment in the news about markets while prices would give reason for celebration

my job as a technical trader is measuring probabilities-nothing more

looking at this chart i see multiple long legs with legs getting steeper

it is this angle increase that that makes me rather conservative versus more exuberant-since any steeper and it is a definitive blow off top

is this a market to short?

no

is this a market to aggressively reload?

no

under the context of the recently published article : https://www.theflowtrader.com/single-post/money-never-sleeps to formulate a case for a probable scenario of a year end market behavior and new year upcoming allocation, I see a higher probability for a sideways or profit taking move for year end rather than more accumulation

it is very important for you to understand that i do not share an opinion here-meaning nothing is more meaningless than another single opinion of a trader, even one with a track record of mine.

I am not trying to share an opinion but a process.

I am starting out with making a simple observation to than benchmark chats against it

It is exactly the opposite of what most investors and fundamental traders do (even classical technical traders).

If you formulate an opinion typically you already have made up your mind and have already a subconscious picture that you will now willingly or unreflected find supportive views to substantiate it

my process is one of elimination instead

i create a probable story

benchmark it against charts

eliminate the less likelier scenario's and am left with the highest probability scenario

it is this reverse methodology of checking "what it is not"

to arrive at a stackable probability truth, which than just like the daily call is a starting point on what tools to apply to look for low risk entry points and from there be prepared for possible market participation, entries, to possibly find myself over larger sample sizes in more winning rather than losing trades with favorable risk reward ratios