Timing, the Silver watch

Covid has a dramatic impact on productivity and business. As such, the burdens on governments and their budgets are enormous. The likelihood of a fiscal stimulus in U.S. to have fruitful effects to produce economic growth and as such value is extremely diminished. Looking at charts across all asset classes, we find markets extended to standard deviations that typically return to their means even if temporarily sustaining such extremes. Timing, the Silver watch.

Intermarket relationships typically cause margin calls once a snowball effect is in place in a temporary crash.

Timing is everything!

It isn’t smart to try putting all eggs in one basket and hoping for the best. Various asset classes can and at some point will each go through a dramatic dip. For example:

  • When real estate, Russel 2000, S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq roll over, consecutively you want to be out of these markets.

  • In case of Gold, Silver and crypto, money needing to hold up margin calls for miss speculation in those markets could drive them lower. Hence, during such times you want to be out of those markets.

  • When your cash will lose half of its worth, you don’t want to hold cash.

  • But when hyperinflation hits, you need to be fully invested in safe havens like Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Bitcoin.

Silver, Weekly Chart, Timing assumed right:


Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of November 18th, 2020


Above, you can see a chart from our last week’s silver chartbook. The assumed trend line break has now manifested as anticipated (see below). This has set in motion the possible activation of turbulent times for the Silver market. With a strenuous year for everybody, not just market participants, a quieter holiday season is hoped for by individuals. Nevertheless, with a still unresolved political arena in the US, increasing negative numbers in the pandemic scenario, and an unstable monetary system around the globe, we could easily be in for a surprise.


Silver, Weekly Chart, Early warning signs:


Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of November 26th, 2020


With a significant trend line, that held steadily for eight-month since March of this year breaking, Silver has entered into a different arena of price behavior. While this being a conservative support zone to add to your physical holdings of Silver for a multiyear time frame, the weekly trading arena has shifted its consensus. We are now near the low end of a sideways trading range, endangered to break even lower!

Silver, Weekly Chart, Watch out!


Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of November 26th, 2020


It is a dynamic cocktail of expecting quieter times near year-end by market participants, but many news areas are still unresolved. As a result, silver prices could break through the support they are sitting on and then swiftly slide into a compression move down, reversing from the exhaustion up move in the third week of July this year.


Should this scenario pan out, we would expect a swift bounce that requires active market participation to take advantage of an only temporary oversold market. We have been posting successfully real-time entries and exits in our free Telegram channel.


Timing, the Silver watch


It needs awareness, smart money management, and good timing to stay out of trouble. Meaning it is this “stay out of trouble” approach that is way more important than “how can I make profits”. Therefore, losses are avoided for a smooth equity curve and steady growth.

Playing defensively this time rather than being aggressively allocated. It will be this defensive attitude that will allow redistributing assets in this timing scheme before the dips are happening for each asset class.


Consequently providing powder for reallocation to a different asset class at bottoms. Bottoms, where most are shell shocked if not even broke. Plan your trades and trade your plan. Timing is everything.


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All published information represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Korbinian Koller & his partners, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Koller’s opinions are his own and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Koller is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Koller recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.




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