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Probability study of possible Silver price advancements

you will find that all reversal points where the ratio line changes direction at a touch point with one of the five white directional lines in the following monthly chart of the gold/silver ratio presentation are similar to suitable entry and exit points for trading silver

most of them as a matter of fact are ideal low risk entry and maximizing exit points and we encourage you to backtest this hypothesis

if you are taking this "helper" for timing your trades one step further, you can improve your odds of predicting trade direction within the silver market

In our recent case of silver prices having a strong up move in price we see this price behavior reflected as a triangle break to the down side

followed by a silver price decline over the last two weeks:

one probability speculating now is a retest of the ratio level of the bottom line of the triangle and than a continued move to lower levels equal to higher prices in a silver price chart

the reason for the indirect view of looking at the gold silver ratio versus only taking a direct look at silver is three fold

A. the direct view leaves the dominant lead relationship to gold out which has the dominant influence of a successful move

B. A direct look at silver leaves the trader with a high variant in entry price, entry timing (see white box in daily price chart above)

C. A direct observation of a silver price chart alone lacks the probability edge of chart patterns in the gold/silver ratio chart stacking the likelihood of certain actual price patterns to manifest or not

Moreover looking at trade scenarios from various angels supports confidence in ones mapped plays.

In our case this is especially useful since we advocate actual physical holdings which have a lag in timing to unload.

While recent volatility is an actual confirmation of this segment of the trend it is gut wrenching to ones psychology of holding physical metals.

Any methodology supporting confidence is essential to maneuver through the rocky roads of exit management.

This includes our Quad exit which allows partial profit taking to bring ones mind at ease.



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