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Student Question USD/JPY

what do you think about my usd/jpy? slow stochastic are all 3 monthly/weekly and daily showing a top sign first and foremost:


it is essential to have a process for trade selection just like for anything else

a sheet to be filled out with detailed aspects like

entry time frame, setup, edges, TA, fundamentals and on and on

this process should be automatic-this way one is not talking oneself into a trade and has checklists if all qualifications and criteria are met

in short anything you can control and make rule based in trading you should

sharing more details like this in a question avoids misunderstandings and is imperative in trading-Matthew and i not just once had long and short entries at the same time-so without talking time frame and long/short and expectancy and edges and on and on there is no value in a discussion because we could literally talk in two different directions

so I assume due to the time frames mentioned you looking to short a monthly time frame with a weekly/daily entry timing

I assume you are contemplating a monthly short as a long term play.

My expertise is rather on shorter time frames but nevertheless my five cents would be that there are no signs of weakness to be identified just yet.

For a monthly play with a weekly entry time frame I still see strength with weekly price formations just having overcome a recent high.

The daily time frame is showing the same with a couple sideways bars followed.

There has been no completion of the double top just yet from what I am viewing and it is questionable if you should be loading your guns just yet.

While you can anticipate this play here on the early side, I would at least wait for some signs of weakness that would confirm you wanting to be early(before price actually meets or exceeds previous highs on the monthly time frame)

or in other words, I see a possible play but no risk reducing factors for an actual entry just yet,

Good luck with your trade!!!!!

(in case you were viewing these charts from a long perspective this is definitely time to take partial profits on your long exposure)

(from an indicator perspective you are correct that continuation sling long patterns have been completed, yet as you know we are not trading indicators, they are a lagging tool to confirm trades, one small piece in the puzzle to stack odds and in this case all they show is a long completion, but not a short entry.

Prices trade sideways -up-sideways -down-sideways... as such be aware that only a few topping tails might have you sit for a few months in an entry zone-one reason why I trade smaller time frames and rather have runners extend to these longer holding periods.

Or in other words, the next step would be to try to trade this larger early setup with confirmed low risk entry signals on the smaller time frames.

Again, you have no real price double tops yet or other indication that this house of cards falls early at least not from my view.

Alternatively if you want to be first and your system has indications that prices will not go any higher, than a very small position with a wider stop that allows for an inverse double top overshoot would be a solution)

when I evaluate possible setups for high time frame plays,i tend to play around to see a picture from all sides

most importantly-how much for how much:

trading at the white horizontal line you can see that risk(red line) is larger than financing(green line)

second target(yellow line is also less than the orange line-so not that hot either

and true risk is the ellipsis since we can expect a possible up move like this while to the short side major VWAP -POC is comparably a very little reward

in other words risk is to the down side-adverse to what we need

in addition you stated:

"Just taught same Signal in 3 time-frames might have an edge alone. "

here some basics in regards to indicators:

they are confirmation tools(low grade confirming edges)

there are oscillators and indicators

wanting to go short here you would need not a trending tool but an oscillator for momentum

as an example:

look at a the length of time a directional indicator can be oversold

and how this translates into price(the very right example of still one year stretch)

and the double top examples with yellow horizontal lines

this is an example of what i also do which is checking the beauty principle on how the same instrument in the same time frame fared at a similar situation

so in short:

do not indicator trade and use the appropriate indicator tool for the situation you want to exploit

and typically I zoom out to see the next higher time frame:

reversal configuration:

reversal configuration:

reversal configuration:

It is easy to criticize and take the opposite side but this isn't intended to criticize you or your methodology or specific trade-quite the contrary-your trade might work out just fine

no why I do take the other side is because that's my process of what I do

I look at my larger time frame plays always from the other side to see if i really have an edge and how it would be if I would go long instead of short


do I have FOMO here to miss out on a trade and want to be in early

instead of principle based:

early entry timing = act/react-only advantage=financing

but there are no act/ react setups in neither one of the fine tuning entry time frames (weekly/daily) present

from a top down perspective it is essential to first have a precise measurement procedure in place that replaces a mere observation fractal to be consistently benchmarking ones edges and alike for each trade entry to get consistent results and a measurable data series to work from and improve from


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