Locked on to opportunity

Last weeks chart book title was: “It’s quiet – don’t fall asleep”. Not any more. A break of a month long sideways range to the down side has brought attention towards the crypto market again. While news paint a grim picture, for the astute market participant this smells opportunity. The timing component has changed so. While we are locked on to opportunity this isn’t a case where one needs to be first. The range of price participation can be quite wide in percentage, like we have shared in this chartbook, it needs reminding of the potential rewards. History has shown that this specific market niche sees high percentage retracements, but in proportion sees even stronger price advancements following.

Monthly chart, BTC/USDT, October 25th 2019, “sitting on support”:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, monthly chart as of October 25th 2019

In the monthly chart above we can see that prices stopped precisely at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This comes to no surprise. As a matter of fact if you back test all charting time frames over the last 9 years on bitcoin you will find that the fractal average of this particular percentage decline is the highest in probability occurrence. We are also near a strong horizontal supply and demand zone support price level. It is purely speculative in nature so when the specific turning point time frame will manifest. The last, strongly bearish, monthly candle of the chart is not complete yet and as such speculation has a variant degree of two month. The closer this month comes to an end the clearer the picture will be in regards to timing. Entry timing being imperative for risk control (some of our guiding principles can be found in our glossary).

BTC/USDT, weekly chart, October 25th 2019, “locked on to opportunity, but wait”:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, weekly chart as of October 25th 2019

The weekly chart shows best, that this is no time for action just yet. As much as prices sit on a multiple support level of price, rotation for the turning point is to aggressive here for longer term plays. We see low risk entries fairly unlikely within the next week, but rather the following one.

10/25/2019, BTC/USDT, daily chart, “what was support becomes resistance”:

Bitcoin in TetherUS, daily chart as of October 25th 2019

A 30 day sideways range has been broken recently and as such is now a hurdle to be penetrated. Risk reward ratios are just fine for 60 minute plays and daily position plays that we post live in our telegram channel. Some runners of these plays might even transfer to higher time frame expansions.

Locked on to opportunity

The importance in this particular segment of the market is focus and patience. While news chatter might increase in negative sentiment, the market speculators job is to be locked on to opportunity. Many traders merely focus on price levels and once reached, engage into the market. While this at times can be a productive approach, it is not all the time ideal. Good entry timing produces the lowest risk exposure for ones money. The charts above show that at this point of time, with a top down time frame approach, it is prudent to be engaged with strong focus, but not quite ready for the trigger finger.

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All published information represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Korbinian Koller & his partners, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Koller’s opinions are his own and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Koller is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Koller recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

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