Bullish tone but not low risk
Silver has shown some relative weakness towards gold within the precious metal sector in recent days. Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the distribution zone near US$18.60 has successfully rejected silver prices a second time within the last six month. Silver is trading right in the center of the sideways contracting trading range between US$16.60 and US$18.60. Yes, we have a bullish tone however there is not a low risk setup. We would need prices at a different price level to enter for a acceptable risk into this precious metal.
Silver in US Dollar (weekly chart) – Contracting range with bullish tone:
Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of February 14th, 2020
With prices trading in the middle of the sideways range, marked with the green and red horizontal support and resistance lines, we are trading at a sub par entry zone. Yellow triangle lines show the range contracting and as such a possible continuation pattern to the upside.
Silver daily Chart – Possible triangle break :
Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of February 14th, 2020
The daily chart provides mixed signals as well. On the one side an attempt to break the triangle formation to the down side, on the other hand a successful support bounce. With larger time frames usually dominating lower ones, we see no sensible entry here. This especially before a weekend, representing “sitting duck” to news and additional risk as such. As much as the bullish tone overall is clear, this is simply not an entry zone for the risk averse participant.
Bullish tone but not low risk
Just because one has conviction of trend, or otherwise a good reason to see prices go to a certain level, does not mean one has an actual executable trade. Never chase a trade, never force a trade and never enter into a trade if the trade setup isn’t low risk. An executable trade needs to fit specific, previously established execution system criteria.
There are plenty of market participants out there wich predicted price direction correctly and still ended up with a string of loosing trades. It takes more than the foresight of price direction – it takes a systematic predetermined low risk approach executed with patience and discipline.
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