An end to the debate

Traders typically do not socialize a lot, yet we all have found ourselves at dinner where boys talk with boys and girls speak with girls, and it is the time for the typical card game we played when we were ten years old:

House? Yeah, I got one.

Mortgage? Mine is bigger.

2.5 Cars, second wife, mistress...

And what are you doing for money? Here, you can still escape and say you are an entrepreneur since we all know that even friends and family think you are an online gambler when you say you are a trader, or even worse, it is your fault that the whole economy is down.

Should you dare say you trade intraday, then you are a dumb fool and worse.

And yet, when the debate is about investing, everybody is an investor and certainly has an opinion. And it gets harder to escape since traders typically are very truthful human beings and do not want to lie.

Finally, the good old rubber meets the road question:" But you are not one of those technical analysts, right?"

It is wise to get as many odds stacked as possible, but here is the fact that brings this debate once and for all to an end.

There isn't even enough for a single sample size on historical data to provide a statistical edge to extract high probability edges for fundamental traders.

Room for interpretation is vast, and while this approach has benefits, as you can always create for your ego an excuse story on why your idea didn't pan out, from a probability perspective, it is much closer to gambling than a technical approach.

It isn't saying that a fundamental approach is lesser than, or anything like that, but from a principle perspective in an ever-expanding world, stories when everything lines up change as well. At the same time, the technical approach measures repetitive human behavior, mathematical and statistical edges, and alike that, in sum, allow for a probabilistic model that approaches markets from an aspect to allow for consistency. As such, every technical trader can hold up his head as high as fundamentalist since principles, ultimate truths, back up their game.