The uncertain certainty of bitcoin

From a market perspective, we live in times of high risk. Markets typically reflect the world, and it is a misconception that markets only anticipate a future. They can also lag; after all, inflation is already present, and they can also be a reflection in real-time, e.g., market crashes. Consequently, it is essential to view an investment from various time angles to place one’s bet. The uncertain certainty of bitcoin.

Some might argue that it is best to sit on one’s hands and wait for a time when bitcoin prices are suppressed, and they have a point with the possibility of a market crash. And then again, they might have said that already when bitcoin was still trading at US$3,000 (we do not find it likely that bitcoin will ever retrace to those levels again.).

Where are the uncertainties in bitcoins certainty? When you dissect a complex mechanism, you will always find a problem. It is like going to the bakery. It would be foolish to expect to get anything else but bread. Maybe it is better to look at a glass half full, meaning why not look at why bitcoin could be a certainty?

BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, every buyer is a winner if he didn’t sell:


Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021.

The monthly chart above certainly shows that whoever bought in the past has made a profit by now. Yet, we know “hodling” isn’t an easy thing. Personal risk appetite determines the number of bitcoin that can be held throughout these boom and bust cycles. We solved this dilemma through our quad exit strategy. And we teach low-risk position size building in our free telegram channel.

BTC in US-Dollar, Weekly Chart, new all-time highs:


Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Weekly chart as of November 9th, 2021.

Now, moving forward to real-time, we can make out a similar bullish picture on the weekly chart after our glimpse in the past. Recent events provide data that substantiates bitcoin’s long-term certainty. A look at the last two weeks of October (marked in white) reveals a very brief battle with a minimal retracement level at the double top of all-time highs. Bears barely get a foot in the door, where typically bitcoin experiences significant retracements. To us, a clear sign that the rush is on. Big player money is now rushing to accumulate the necessary size they aim to hold on their books for the long term. Consequently, reducing volatility, one of the most feared aspects of bitcoin, which in times to come will attract more market players to this trading vehicle.

BTC in US-Dollar, Monthly Chart, six figures in 2022:


Bitcoin in US-Dollar, Monthly chart as of November 9th, 2021.

A look into the future from a monthly chart perspective is confidence building as well. With new all-time high prices printing at the time of publication of this chart book, our bet is still on bitcoin with a 63% over 37% chance that prices will advance from here rather than retracing to a substantially lower price level. So far, bitcoin has done nothing else but eradicate the uncertainties placed in its way. The most stubborn doubter would likely be happy if they had picked up a few coins when they traded at a dollar. What provides confidence for our forecast is the confirmation that bitcoin price retracements are now more modest. This lets us assume that the amount of professional traders participating in this market has increased. In the monthly chart above, you can make out that closing prices of the month’s May, June, and July this year closed above the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. A conservative retracement for bitcoins historical standards. We project for the near term that bitcoin will reach six-figure prices in mid-February next year.

The uncertain certainty of bitcoin:

From the anticipatory perspective, it seems evident that holding bitcoin is a prudent move with a look into the future. A hedge is needed once the risk is apparent to all, and the house of cards will tumble.

From a real-time perspective, we also find bitcoin to be a “must-own.” The charts above showed the strength with which bitcoin is aching to claim its turf, and it is never good to wait till “fear of missing out” kicks in, and low-risk entry opportunities become scarce.

And from a reactionary perspective, a look in the past, it is evident that anybody would like a piece of the action where bitcoin has nothing but a stunning history of unheard percentage moves and made it from eight cents to US$ 67,000 in just a dozen years.

There are always uncertainties in speculative ventures, but bitcoin itself is a certainty, not to be rationalized away for the years to come.


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All published information represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Korbinian Koller & his partners, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Koller’s opinions are his own and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Koller is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Koller recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.




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