as promised here now the post with an example of why higher time frame HOD,LOD is important
getting a feel for the higher likelihood of what the market might do today and what that means for your flexible but still present expectations of the day is a good starting point to rather be anticipatory on the right side of the market than following intuitive behavior when the market opens sine we already learned that most of the markets behavior is generally counter intuitive
lets look at the recent index behavior of the S&P 500 for example
(I picked this market since futures are a professional market and an overall market feel of the general market is prudent to have no matter what you trade since almost all markets are related in one way or another)
daily charts of the S&P and the NASDAQ over the last few days:
(charts courtesy of TradeStation charting)
at closer look as much as both markets over the last 3 weeks have extended into all time new highs NQ is the weaker of the two indices and has for the first time today built a possible indication of a temporary reversal signal.
ES being strong has provided constant bullish candles within this time frame and as such warranted as a daily setup favoring the long side for trade direction.
(if you have more short entries in the last 3 weeks on ES than long ones you were not on the desirable side of trend direction)
since NQ had candle formations at the same time feeling more heavy the general consensus was sideways to up...
in a sideways market it makes sense to fade the highs or the lows of the day
in a sideways to up market iit is the lowest risk to fade only the lows of the day
if you look back within this 3 week period you will find numerous low risk 15 min double bottom ES entries that resulted into winning trades
if you merely reacted to the markets with them often selling off in the morning you might have found yourself on the wrong side of the day
so a daily picture prior to the market of general likelihoods provides a top down focus of which trades are the important ones to have in size and in the appropriate larger time frame exit strategy expectancy
here are a few examples from these three weeks on ES (15 min double bottom entries):
now all I wanted to illustrate here is that a top down approach of time frames and tools is providing a higher likelihood to be on the right side of the tracks-nothing else-
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